With the total number of deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic alarmingly approaching 100,000 people the world over, one cannot help but to ask the question ‘Is the number of such deaths in Malaysia growing exponentially?’. To put it simply exponential growth may see daily death rate double in say 24 hours.
Very recently, it was reported by Anna Ziff and Robert Ziff two researchers in USA (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023820v2) that Covid-19 related deaths in China initially grew exponentially but eventually followed by what’s called a ‘power law’ growth. This is welcoming news because without a vaccine the current Covid-19 pandemic may eventually be contained by Movement Control Order and Lockdowns together with other preventive measures.
In order to understand the power law behaviour we may imagine the many domestic and international airlines routes flying in or out of airports over the map of Malaysia. Major airports like KLIA and KLIA2 have more routes than the others. In network or graph theory these major airports are hubs and the other smaller airports are called nodes. The airline routes joining the different nodes are called links. It is typical of power law networks to have a few hubs and many nodes.
Network analysis and visualisation are very useful for contact tracing to alleviate a disease outbreak. In the present context each node represents a person who may either (i) be infectious (ii) have been tested and infected, (iii) tested but not infected or (iv) not tested yet. Each link represents a contact between two people. A hub represents an infectious person with many links. If a network obeys power law, then there are only several hubs and many nodes with lesser links. The larger hubs are the disease super spreaders. In order to treat such networks, one needs to identify quickly these super spreaders, their close and casual contacts followed by treating and monitoring them.
Unlike random networks where there is an even chance of any person coming into contact with another, power law networks are not random but small world networks where most people have only a small number of links to other people, most of whom are close contacts within their community.
We have analysed data obtained from the Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/malaysia/) and generated a logarithmic-logarithmic graphical plot for the total number of deaths in Malaysia against time for the period 16 March 2020 – 8 April 2020. We have chosen number of deaths since these are a more reliable indication of the severity of the pandemic. Clearly, from the Figure 1 the data that are power law fit is represented by the straight line there with an exponent equal 1.4.
The efforts by the government of Malaysia to contain the Covid-19 spread must be praised since the national number of identified positive cases and deaths are relatively small. One of the outcomes from this is the power law growth instead of the dreaded exponential growth of deaths for the period of this study. This is God’s mercy. Nature also appears to be taking care of itself. Rivers and air seem to be less polluted as a result of the current pandemic. This is in line with the Holy Quran Chapter 42, verse 30: “Whatever misfortune befalls you is a consequence of your deeds. But much of it He forgives.”
